Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 5847 at 15:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 5847 DTW 15:55 → GRR 17:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3500 DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5847 Republic	DTW 15:55	GRR 17:01	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 5846 Republic	DTW 13:56	GRR 15:00	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4607 SkyWest	DTW 12:26	GRR 13:25	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3928 SkyWest	DTW 19:58	GRR 20:57	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 3500 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:50	GRR 09:54	18%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON