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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 307 Delta Flight history → DTW 10:30 HNL 14:07 19% 4% 0.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 42m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:02 → DEN 10:15UA 2302 1h 45m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 11m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 14h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 03m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 54m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:05 → JFK 08:59DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor 1h 31m New York JFK 10:30 → HNL 15:21DL 636 14h 16m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883 1h 04m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 11h 32m 86% 73%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:55 → SFO 09:06UA 1550 1h 39m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 12h 25m 95% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON