Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 10:04	HPN 12:07	11%	3%	0.9%	73%
DL 4658 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:00	HPN 15:56	13%	4%	1.0%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → HPN 16:51DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor	7h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → HPN 14:40DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	8h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:36 → HPN 12:04DL 2973	6h 47m	97%	81%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA	7h 13m	96%	80%
American Details →	DTW 10:30 → ORD 10:59AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → HPN 17:25AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	6h 55m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → HPN 18:11DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	7h 46m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 42m	100%	79%
American Details →	DTW 12:19 → DCA 14:08AA 5660 · flown by PSA	2h 51m Washington	DCA 16:59 → HPN 18:27AA 5236 · flown by PSA	6h 08m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON