Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 234 DTW 06:09 → IAH 08:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1957 DTW 13:03 → IAH 15:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 234 United	DTW 06:09	IAH 08:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	IAH 10:37	15%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:29	IAH 14:30	16%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 1633 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:25	IAH 22:24	17%	6%	0.5%	81%
F9 1957 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:03	IAH 15:10	21%	6%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON