tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2333 at 08:29, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2333 Delta Flight history → DTW 08:29 JAX 10:49 10% 2% 1.0% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 2h 22m Minneapolis MSP 10:15 → JAX 14:06DL 2392 7h 05m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024 6h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 6h 43m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990 6h 54m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa 1h 06m Dulles IAD 08:40 → JAX 10:51UA 2084 4h 51m 88% 79%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 10:45 → JAX 12:12AA 1925 6h 12m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 1h 57m New York JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035 6h 30m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 3h 49m Charlotte CLT 12:43 → JAX 14:10AA 1937 7h 10m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:02 → ORD 13:31AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 56m Chicago ORD 14:27 → JAX 17:57AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON