Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2751 at 10:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2751 DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 819 DTW 17:36 → JFK 19:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2751 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:14	JFK 11:58	13%	3%	0.9%	91%
B6 1419 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 06:00	JFK 07:47	14%	3%	1.1%	84%
DL 2934 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:18	JFK 18:29	16%	7%	0.9%	79%
DL 1316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:03	JFK 20:04	17%	5%	0.8%	62%
B6 819 JetBlue	DTW 17:36	JFK 19:23	33%	7%	1.3%	no record
DL 5216 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 07:03	JFK 09:00	19%	10%	2.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON