Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 334 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 334 DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 766 DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	14%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	18%	4%	0.5%	76%
F9 2801 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 08:30	LAS 09:57	19%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:51	LAS 21:11	21%	8%	0.6%	72%
WN 549 Southwest	DTW 12:53	LAS 14:24	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	24%	8%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON