Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1487 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1487 DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2602 DTW 15:56 → LGA 17:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1487 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	LGA 08:47	5%	2%	1.0%	90%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 08:41	LGA 10:36	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	LGA 11:50	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	11%	4%	1.1%	74%
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:05	13%	5%	1.2%	76%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:12	LGA 16:09	14%	6%	1.9%	56%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	LGA 17:45	18%	6%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON