Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2555 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2555 DTW 07:05 → MCO 09:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1274 DTW 18:38 → MCO 21:12 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2555 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	MCO 09:40	11%	3%	4.6%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	MCO 11:23	16%	4%	4.6%	86%
F9 4286 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:43	MCO 16:39	20%	7%	3.3%	81%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:23	MCO 15:03	20%	6%	1.2%	63%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	22%	6%	1.6%	76%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	22%	5%	14.9%	74%
F9 2530 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 16:35	MCO 19:17	22%	10%	2.8%	64%
DL 1274 Delta	DTW 18:38	MCO 21:12	23%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON