tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5169 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 21:38 MDT 23:10 30% 13% 1.8% 70%
DL 4891 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 15:23 MDT 16:54 43% 13% 1.8% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 08m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont 4h 05m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → MDT 11:39DL 1248 5h 22m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 12m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MDT 13:12AA 6134 · flown by Piedmont 6h 12m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DTW 17:59 → ATL 20:04DL 2053 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283 5h 54m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387 56m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → MDT 10:25AA 2384 4h 25m 87% 72%
UnitedDetails → DTW 10:58 → ORD 11:27UA 426 2h 38m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MDT 16:59UA 533 6h 01m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa 1h 24m Dulles IAD 17:35 → MDT 18:44UA 4250 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 09m 91% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON