Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1627 Delta	DTW 10:13	MEM 11:15	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3049 Delta	DTW 17:49	MEM 18:55	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MEM 08:57DL 1149	4h 40m	95%	86%
American Details →	DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 10:43 → MEM 12:11AA 5040 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:44 → BNA 09:25DL 2682	1h 29m Nashville	BNA 10:54 → MEM 12:00DL 8930	4h 16m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:11DL 733	6h 46m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON