Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3102 DTW 08:39 → MKE 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3965 DTW 15:46 → MKE 16:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3102 Delta	DTW 08:39	MKE 08:56	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3981 SkyWest	DTW 12:41	MKE 13:04	13%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 3724 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:00	MKE 20:20	18%	8%	0.6%	64%
OO 3965 SkyWest	DTW 15:46	MKE 16:04	18%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 5476 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:25	MKE 12:42	37%	20%	0.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON