Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 08:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	MSY 10:24	12%	2%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695	7h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02DL 1163	2h 18m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	7h 51m	99%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:49 → DCA 08:39AA 5244 · flown by PSA	2h 23m Washington	DCA 11:02 → MSY 12:52AA 2586	7h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSY 09:50DL 1424	4h 33m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 52m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	3h 33m New York	JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02DL 1387	8h 48m	100%	81%
United Details →	DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa	2h 28m Houston	IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738	6h 38m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302	52m Denver	DEN 11:05 → MSY 14:47UA 2273	6h 46m	60%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON