Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3440 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:27 → ORD 05:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1665 DTW 20:00 → ORD 20:31 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:27	ORD 05:55	6%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:33	ORD 07:18	11%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:30	ORD 10:59	15%	6%	0.8%	86%
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 10:58	ORD 11:27	16%	6%	0.6%	70%
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 10:05	ORD 10:26	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:32	ORD 12:57	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:24	ORD 07:49	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:26	ORD 07:45	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4013 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 08:27	ORD 09:01	18%	4%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:02	ORD 13:31	20%	5%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
UA 1503 United	DTW 08:52	ORD 09:09	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:10	ORD 16:39	24%	5%	1.9%	81%
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:52	ORD 21:17	24%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 3958 SkyWest	DTW 13:13	ORD 13:35	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	27%	9%	1.0%	71%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	27%	7%	1.1%	76%
UA 2771 United	DTW 19:10	ORD 19:38	29%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:36	ORD 16:57	29%	10%	1.7%	49%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	33%	7%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON