Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3066 Delta	DTW 10:05	ORF 11:57	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 412 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	ORF 23:32	14%	5%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	6h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648	2h 06m Boston	BOS 14:05 → ORF 16:00DL 5858 · flown by Republic	5h 55m	97%	85%
American Details →	DTW 06:49 → DCA 08:39AA 5244 · flown by PSA	1h 17m Washington	DCA 09:56 → ORF 11:16AA 5509 · flown by PSA	4h 27m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	5h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	55m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ORF 09:46DL 2755	4h 29m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	7h 14m	99%	81%
American Details →	DTW 12:19 → DCA 14:08AA 5660 · flown by PSA	56m Washington	DCA 15:04 → ORF 16:23AA 5601 · flown by PSA	4h 04m	90%	78%
American Details →	DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 12:49 → ORF 14:09AA 2911	7h 09m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 09:50 → ORF 11:27DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	4h 24m	73%	60%
American Details →	DTW 14:49 → CLT 16:43AA 1683	49m Charlotte	CLT 17:32 → ORF 18:55AA 2519	4h 06m	72%	48%
American Details →	DTW 17:09 → DFW 19:10AA 3310	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → ORF 00:23 +1AA 1379	7h 14m	66%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON