Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 16:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:54	PDX 10:36	9%	2%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 15m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	2h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	7h 58m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551	10h 59m	99%	84%
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302	3h 16m Denver	DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255	9h 14m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	6h 55m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503	9h 24m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313	52m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	68%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON