Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5414 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day AA 5414 DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 1391 DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:03	PHL 07:52	5%	3%	1.3%	100%
DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 4392 Republic	DTW 12:56	PHL 14:47	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	PHL 11:41	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
OH 5367 PSA	DTW 19:25	PHL 21:20	9%	5%	2.0%	no record
DL 2402 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	PHL 23:16	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	16%	4%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON