Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1070 DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 1135 DTW 17:11 → PHX 18:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	PHX 09:44	11%	3%	0.5%	80%
F9 4671 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 06:03	PHX 07:30	13%	3%	1.0%	75%
DL 813 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:47	PHX 13:50	14%	4%	0.5%	80%
AA 839 American Flight history →	DTW 08:00	PHX 09:24	15%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1135 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:11	PHX 18:15	16%	5%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON