Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	PWM 11:55	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	PWM 16:01	12%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA	58m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	4h 28m	100%	88%
American Details →	DTW 06:49 → DCA 08:39AA 5244 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Washington	DCA 11:04 → PWM 13:07AA 5528 · flown by PSA	6h 18m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PWM 12:50DL 2479	7h 33m	98%	85%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → PWM 12:50AA 1744	6h 50m	95%	80%
American Details →	DTW 10:30 → ORD 10:59AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 13:18 → PWM 17:04AA 4741 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	96%	79%
American Details →	DTW 16:10 → ORD 16:39AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → PWM 23:57AA 4504 · flown by Republic	7h 47m	96%	78%
United Details →	DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa	46m Dulles	IAD 08:20 → PWM 10:07UA 3548 · flown by Republic	4h 07m	81%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:25 → PWM 21:05DL 2138	6h 22m	95%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	47m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	4h 05m	66%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON