Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2164 DTW 10:10 → RDU 11:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2640 DTW 12:32 → RDU 14:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	RDU 11:52	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:25	RDU 16:08	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	13%	4%	0.6%	75%
F9 2640 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:32	RDU 14:15	14%	6%	1.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON