Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1418 at 21:29, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1418 Delta	DTW 21:29	ROC 22:45	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 5211 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 14:25	ROC 15:48	28%	10%	1.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA	58m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → ROC 10:21AA 6126 · flown by Piedmont	4h 18m	100%	89%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:22AA 2742	6h 22m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	6h 14m	97%	82%
American Details →	DTW 06:33 → ORD 07:18AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 08:19 → ROC 11:11AA 4104 · flown by Envoy	4h 38m	90%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	6h 55m	99%	75%
American Details →	DTW 12:19 → DCA 14:08AA 5660 · flown by PSA	50m Washington	DCA 14:58 → ROC 16:36AA 5457 · flown by PSA	4h 17m	88%	74%
United Details →	DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa	51m Dulles	IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet	3h 52m	82%	74%
American Details →	DTW 10:59 → CLT 12:55AA 2582	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 15:27 → ROC 17:27AA 2320	6h 28m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON