Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 492 DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 369 DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	16%	3%	0.5%	83%
DL 761 Delta	DTW 12:31	SAN 14:14	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	20%	4%	0.5%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 37m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145	6h 55m	93%	77%
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302	1h 02m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 40m	87%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON