Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5832 at 19:45, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5832 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:45	SDF 21:12	10%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 4947 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 15:18	SDF 16:46	39%	22%	1.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	7h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → SDF 15:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	1h 53m New York	LGA 10:40 → SDF 13:01DL 5637 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 40m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648	1h 31m Boston	BOS 13:30 → SDF 16:19DL 5615 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	2h 05m New York	LGA 16:10 → SDF 18:51DL 5651 · flown by Republic	6h 36m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	6h 50m	99%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → SDF 12:16AA 5145 · flown by PSA	6h 16m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 16:36 → ORD 16:57UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	53m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	3h 47m	65%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON