Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1550 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 06:54 → SFO 09:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest DL 335 DTW 19:47 → SFO 21:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 06:54	SFO 09:04	15%	5%	0.6%	61%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	22%	5%	0.4%	70%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:48	SFO 10:43	22%	6%	0.4%	75%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:17	SFO 18:14	25%	7%	0.4%	69%
DL 335 Delta	DTW 19:47	SFO 21:57	29%	8%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756	7h 05m	90%	74%
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302	1h 07m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 03m	87%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON