Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 698 DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2117 DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 698 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	SLC 10:21	11%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 935 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	SLC 14:11	16%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 765 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	SLC 19:34	17%	4%	0.4%	78%
DL 2117 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:20	SLC 22:15	17%	5%	0.4%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	5h 46m	83%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON