tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 09:01, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302 3h 12m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 8h 55m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 2h 25m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 8h 08m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa 1h 39m Dulles IAD 17:50 → SNA 20:40UA 2319 9h 05m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:54 → SFO 09:04UA 1550 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441 10h 15m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 14m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 7h 20m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1467 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 26m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 3h 43m Seattle SEA 18:12 → SNA 20:56DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 11h 27m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DTW 10:30 → ORD 10:59AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest 55m Chicago ORD 11:54 → SNA 14:22AA 1916 6h 52m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON