Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4111 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4111 DTW 07:08 → STL 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1541 DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4111 Southwest	DTW 07:08	STL 07:55	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	STL 09:31	9%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 2050 Southwest	DTW 12:23	STL 13:10	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:33	STL 15:17	13%	4%	0.5%	83%
DL 1541 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	STL 20:37	14%	4%	0.5%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON