Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2424 at 21:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2424 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:30	TVC 22:41	19%	6%	0.6%	77%
DL 4721 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:30	TVC 09:45	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	99%	89%
American Details →	DTW 08:27 → ORD 09:01AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	100%	73%
United Details →	DTW 16:36 → ORD 16:57UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	5h 49m	94%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON