Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 15:51, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 15:51	XNA 17:16	11%	4%	0.9%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	2h 24m New York	LGA 11:11 → XNA 13:34DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → XNA 16:51DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 26m	99%	84%
United Details →	DTW 09:01 → DEN 10:13UA 2302	3h 17m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	8h 24m	100%	84%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 05m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	6h 49m	98%	82%
American Details →	DTW 10:59 → CLT 12:55AA 2582	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 15:41 → XNA 17:08AA 5233 · flown by PSA	7h 09m	96%	82%
American Details →	DTW 08:27 → ORD 09:01AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710	6h 49m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 10:30 → ORD 10:59AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	4h 12m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON