Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3048 at 09:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3048 ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3094 ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ECP 09:22	ATL 11:30	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
DL 1674 Delta Flight history →	ECP 07:50	ATL 10:00	10%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 3114 Delta Flight history →	ECP 06:00	ATL 08:13	11%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ECP 11:38	ATL 13:51	15%	4%	1.0%	87%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ECP 13:43	ATL 15:58	16%	5%	0.9%	67%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ECP 17:00	ATL 19:18	22%	8%	1.9%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON