Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 775 Southwest	ECP 11:11	AUS 13:34	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 15:39	AUS 17:54	19%	10%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 28m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104	6h 01m	98%	82%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 18m Houston	IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859	4h 24m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	7h 12m	98%	79%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 47m Houston	IAH 10:15 → AUS 11:19UA 1823	4h 49m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → AUS 21:18DL 1170	7h 35m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081	6h 14m	95%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 08m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	4h 20m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON