tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5159 PSA ECP 08:27 CLT 11:22 9% 4% 1.7% no record
OH 5126 PSA ECP 13:30 CLT 16:11 18% 6% 4.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 11m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157 4h 41m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 4h 26m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 5h 58m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132 5h 24m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158 5h 46m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031 5h 55m 99% 74%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311 3h 24m Nashville BNA 16:20 → CLT 18:44WN 159 6h 30m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON