Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 09:46	DAL 12:00	5%	2%	0.9%	88%
WN 1163 Southwest	ECP 16:11	DAL 18:25	13%	7%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	6h 00m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 15:46 → DAL 17:46WN 528	6h 32m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 16m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 25m	91%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON