Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5411 at 11:50, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5411 PSA	ECP 11:50	DCA 15:24	14%	6%	3.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	5h 52m	94%	81%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311	3h 54m Nashville	BNA 16:50 → DCA 19:44WN 3821	7h 30m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 06m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 04m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 52m	95%	75%
American Details →	ECP 07:38 → DFW 09:59AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 21m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	4h 52m	95%	72%
United Details →	ECP 14:47 → IAH 17:01UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 02m Houston	IAH 18:03 → DCA 22:15UA 1627	6h 28m	85%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON