tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1481 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1481 Southwest ECP 09:26 DEN 11:58 6% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1552 United ECP 15:28 DEN 17:54 21% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 7h 10m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ECP 14:47 → IAH 17:01UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:10 → DEN 21:29UA 685 7h 42m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519 7h 18m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530 6h 36m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746 8h 00m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 09:46 → DAL 12:00WN 312 2h 23m Dallas DAL 14:23 → DEN 15:38WN 205 6h 52m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:39 → IAH 13:48UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 44m Houston IAH 16:32 → DEN 18:24UA 470 7h 45m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311 3h 54m Nashville BNA 16:50 → DEN 18:53WN 1535 8h 39m 100% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON