Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4120 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4120 ECP 07:38 → DFW 09:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2052 ECP 15:17 → DFW 17:36 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4120 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 07:38	DFW 09:59	10%	4%	1.3%	94%
AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 13:13	DFW 14:59	19%	6%	1.6%	73%
AA 2052 American	ECP 15:17	DFW 17:36	29%	14%	3.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON