Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1482 at 17:06, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1482 Southwest	ECP 17:06	HOU 19:07	16%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 09:46 → DAL 12:00WN 312	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 15:45 → HOU 17:00WN 37	7h 14m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 00m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311	3h 59m Nashville	BNA 16:55 → HOU 19:07WN 569	7h 53m	100%	76%
American Details →	ECP 13:13 → DFW 14:59AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	4h 51m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON