Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4776 ECP 06:19 → IAH 08:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4352 ECP 14:47 → IAH 17:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4776 SkyWest	ECP 06:19	IAH 08:17	12%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 4842 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 16:50	IAH 19:13	16%	7%	4.3%	71%
UA 4851 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 11:39	IAH 13:48	16%	5%	1.2%	83%
UA 4352 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ECP 14:47	IAH 17:01	17%	6%	1.2%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON