Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, 9E 4988 at 12:15, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


9E 4988 Endeavor	ECP 12:15	LGA 15:47	20%	7%	2.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 00m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 42m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 28m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	6h 49m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	6h 45m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	5h 24m	87%	70%
United Details →	ECP 14:47 → IAH 17:01UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 36m Houston	IAH 18:37 → LGA 23:22UA 2682	7h 35m	93%	68%
United Details →	ECP 11:39 → IAH 13:48UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 27m Houston	IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59UA 334	8h 20m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON