tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1470 at 15:31, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1470 Southwest ECP 15:31 MCI 18:05 12% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 7h 07m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 6h 12m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 09:46 → DAL 12:00WN 312 3h 13m Dallas DAL 15:13 → MCI 16:47WN 130 7h 01m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130 7h 13m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 58m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:38 → DFW 09:59AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:57 → MCI 13:31AA 1315 5h 53m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → ECP 13:13 → DFW 14:59AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → MCI 19:06AA 2267 5h 53m 99% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 56m Houston IAH 20:06 → MCI 22:02UA 1589 4h 57m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON