Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:22, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	6h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	4h 42m	92%	80%
Southwest Details →	ECP 09:46 → DAL 12:00WN 312	58m Dallas	DAL 12:58 → MDW 15:25WN 509	5h 39m	94%	77%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311	59m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → MDW 15:35WN 4380	4h 21m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 15m	91%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON