tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3497 Republic ECP 14:01 ORD 16:46 27% 7% 1.4% no record
OO 4756 SkyWest ECP 16:11 ORD 18:55 28% 12% 4.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 25m Houston IAH 11:53 → ORD 14:37UA 1691 8h 07m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 58m Houston IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752 7h 40m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 49m Houston IAH 13:48 → ORD 16:30UA 1299 7h 30m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894 6h 27m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 53m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → ORD 14:25DL 1477 6h 35m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 54m Houston IAH 15:34 → ORD 18:16UA 2775 6h 36m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:38 → DFW 09:59AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285 6h 20m 94% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON