tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131 5h 25m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279 5h 15m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:22 → ATL 11:30DL 3048 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692 5h 36m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:59UA 4819 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 23m Houston IAH 12:22 → PHL 16:54UA 2748 6h 54m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 59m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174 6h 59m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329 7h 13m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:38 → DFW 09:59AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:31 → PHL 18:03AA 891 9h 25m 94% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON