Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1471 at 05:51, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1471 Southwest	ECP 05:51	STL 07:51	3%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	6h 37m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	ECP 11:14 → BNA 12:56WN 311	2h 09m Nashville	BNA 15:05 → STL 16:30WN 779	5h 16m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	6h 30m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	ECP 09:46 → DAL 12:00WN 312	2h 18m Dallas	DAL 14:18 → STL 16:15WN 3044	6h 29m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:43 → ATL 15:58DL 2823	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	6h 54m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	5h 01m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:00 → ATL 19:18DL 3094	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403	6h 20m	97%	76%
United Details →	ECP 14:47 → IAH 17:01UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 04m Houston	IAH 20:05 → STL 22:07UA 1528	7h 20m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON