Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1741 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1741 Delta Flight history →	ELP 06:00	ATL 11:10	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ELP 14:25	ATL 19:42	18%	5%	2.0%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	1h 24m Denver	DEN 10:17 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	6h 23m	92%	74%
Frontier Details →	ELP 20:14 → LAS 21:08F9 3449	2h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428	8h 45m	95%	68%
American Details →	ELP 07:39 → ORD 11:55AA 4006 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 13:01 → ATL 16:05AA 616	6h 26m	100%	66%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	7h 38m	95%	64%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 09:45 → ATL 17:15AA 753	9h 14m	97%	64%
United Details →	ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir	55m Houston	IAH 18:10 → ATL 21:23UA 2240	5h 21m	82%	60%
American Details →	ELP 12:21 → PHX 12:56AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Phoenix	PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391	8h 29m	92%	56%
American Details →	ELP 09:57 → DFW 12:49AA 1365	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:06 → ATL 19:26AA 2403	7h 29m	95%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON