tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 356 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 356 Southwest ELP 07:08 AUS 09:54 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1864 Southwest ELP 16:48 AUS 19:34 17% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 6h 51m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 31m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 6h 39m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 6h 29m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 36m Houston IAH 21:46 → AUS 22:44UA 1179 5h 44m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:02 → IAH 17:15UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 03m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 23m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 2h 01m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 6h 25m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081 7h 49m 92% 70%
AmericanDetails → ELP 12:21 → PHX 12:56AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 15:25 → AUS 19:43AA 2892 6h 22m 92% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 08m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 4h 25m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON