Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1872 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1872 ELP 06:03 → DEN 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1728 ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1872 Southwest	ELP 06:03	DEN 08:03	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
F9 4418 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 19:26	DEN 21:38	20%	7%	0.6%	77%
WN 1412 Southwest	ELP 14:28	DEN 16:28	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	22%	8%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON