Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2029 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2029 ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2316 ELP 17:27 → DFW 20:31 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2029 American Flight history →	ELP 07:05	DFW 10:00	19%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 2319 American	ELP 07:01	DFW 09:59	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3272 American	ELP 07:58	DFW 10:56	21%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	ELP 09:57	DFW 12:49	21%	8%	1.5%	78%
AA 1658 American	ELP 12:18	DFW 15:12	27%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 2953 American	ELP 14:13	DFW 17:07	35%	13%	2.0%	no record
AA 2316 American	ELP 17:27	DFW 20:31	43%	22%	13.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON