Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6163 ELP 06:59 → IAH 10:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 5312 ELP 14:11 → IAH 17:26 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6163 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 06:59	IAH 10:13	11%	4%	1.2%	93%
UA 6303 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 05:43	IAH 08:59	11%	5%	1.3%	92%
UA 3994 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 08:00	IAH 11:11	15%	5%	1.1%	90%
C5 4239 CommuteAir	ELP 12:24	IAH 15:40	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 5312 SkyWest	ELP 14:11	IAH 17:26	19%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON