Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4910 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4910 ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2042 ELP 16:33 → LAX 17:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4910 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:14	6%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 1243 Southwest	ELP 11:08	LAX 12:22	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4973 SkyWest	ELP 12:09	LAX 13:23	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6361 SkyWest	ELP 18:06	LAX 19:19	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2042 Southwest	ELP 16:33	LAX 17:47	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON